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Predicting Who Will Be Living in Los Angeles in 2030

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The image above depicts what Los Angeles could look like in 2030 in a remote, but still possible situation·according to this awesome tool from the Urban Institute, LA's population could drop more than seven percent from 2010 to 2030. That's assuming a low birth rate, high death rate, and high migration rate, all of which are reasonable if still extreme assumptions based on recent trends. The tool lets you play around with those three factors to see what American metro areas might look like in the next couple decades. Shifting demographics don't just change the makeup of a city's population, it also affects demand for public services, schools, hospitals, and housing. Of course, housing is a big issue in crowded Los Angeles, especially in newly desirable but understocked neighborhoods like Downtown (poor people are already migrating out of the LA area in search of cheaper housing). Let's look at a few ways things might go down:

On the other end of the spectrum from the prediction above, we have the following prediction for 2010 to 2030, in which population increases by more than 32 percent:

The predictions are based on demographic trends from past census data. Here's the map for the period between 2000 and 2010, showing true values:

The predictions below are for 2010 to 2020. Los Angeles could experience population growth of somewhere between -1.66 percent and 17.68 percent:

The tool also displays age demographics by racial identity. Here's the chart for 2010 using actual data:

Now here's the same graph for 2030, using the extreme case of low births, high deaths, and high migration:

Now high births, low deaths, and low migration:


· See What Your City Will Be Like in 15 Years [The Atlantic]
· Expensive Housing Driving All the Poor People Out of California [Curbed LA]