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The 5% Factor

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Who couldn't get to back to bed after last night's quake? Raise your hand if you decided it was a really good time for a snack. And now, let's look at the statistics. Kate Hutton, a seismologist at Caltech in the LA Times: "Any time an earthquake occurs in California, there's statistically a 5% chance that it is a "foreshock" of a larger earthquake, Hutton said. But that 5% chance diminishes after the first day of the quake. The likelihood of a subsequent larger temblor is further lessened if there are no aftershocks. As daybreak approached, no aftershocks had been reported." UPDATE: The Twitterati are all paranoid, pointing out that a 4.4 quake happened at 4:04 am. [LAT]